The Worth of College Today
“College is no longer worth the high costs.” “A.I is going to supplant many white collar jobs so it is time to rethink a four-year degree.”
Have you heard either of these sentiments recently? I have, and such arguments have caused me to deeply reflect on my work as the Executive Director of the College Readiness Consortium at the University of Minnesota, where our mission is to increase the number of students who are prepared for all types of postsecondary education including two or four-year college, military, trade school, or an apprenticeship. While I understand from where these notions stem, I worry about the impact they will have on our youth at a time when our nation needs its citizens to be more educated, not less. Do I still think college can be for all students? I absolutely do, and there is ample data to support this.
Let’s unpack these sentiments above.
“College is no longer worth the high costs.”
Undoubtedly, college is expensive. Some four-years schools’ sticker prices are now more than $100,000 a year. Harvey Mudd, for example, tops the nation at a net price of $104,512 this year, and Duke, USC, Fordham, NYU, and Pepperdine are not far behind. In addition, in recent years, many colleges have shifted to a high tuition plus high financial aid model, offering both merit and need-based aid. In fact, across the country, about 80% of students at private colleges receive some grant aid to attend. Thus, students need to know that at such schools, the sticker price is often not the final word.
Not EVERY college is outrageously priced, though. While the average price of a four-year college in the U.S. is $39,406 including tuition, housing, books, and daily living expenses, the costs are much less for those opting to attend an in-state public school.
- The average in-state tuition for a four-year college student living on campus is $28,349.
- The average cost of in-state tuition alone is $9,872.
- The average price tag of out-of-state is $29,247.
Meanwhile, the average cost of two-year college attendance in the U.S. is $7,947, and for students wanting to continue beyond an associate’s degree, it can be a much cheaper start to earning a bachelor’s degree.
- The average in-state tuition for a two-year college is $3,973.
- The average cost of out-of-state tuition is $9,560.
The cost of attending trade schools can vary quite widely, depending on the program pursued and its length, and the type of institution. Attendance at a public, community college pursuing a certificate can be a lot cheaper than a private career-school. A short course will cost quite a bit less than a longer term program, such as one in radiologic technology.
- The average cost of tuition and fees at a public, two-year trade school is about $4000.
- The average cost of a private, non-profit two-year school is roughly $19,500.
- The average cost of a private, for-profit two-year institution is $16,300.
Not all trade schools have residential housing, so additional costs would be incurred for this, as well as other fees, such as supplies, exams, and tools.
So, while college is expensive, it is important to remember that not all colleges cost the same, and that there are ways to keep costs lower. Choosing a high quality in-state school, opting for a college that usually graduates its students on time, filling out the FAFSA to apply for financial aid, and attending strong postsecondary institutions that offer need-based and merit aid can all reduce the costs for students.
“A.I is going to supplant many white collar jobs so it is time to rethink a four-year degree.”
ChatGPT was introduced in 2022, making this era very young, so making predictions about the labor market are hard. Although it is pretty early to know anything for certain, there are initial indications in Bureau of Labor Statistics data suggestive of a shake up happening. For example, disruption has been detected in the following occupational projections for the next decade:
Occupations that may see the fastest employment declines through 2035 include:
- Word processors and typists
- Telephone operators
- Switchboard operators
- Data entry keyers
- Foundry mold and coremakers
- Patternmakers, metal and plastic
- Telemarketers
- Grinding and polishing workers, hand
- Roof bolters
- Cutters and trimmers, hand
Jobs that could see the largest employment declines through 2035 include:
- Cashiers
- Office clerks, general
- Customer service reps
- Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive
- Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks
- Shipping, receiving, and inventory clerks
- First-line supervisors of retail sales workers
- Tellers
- Data entry keyers
- Correctional officers and jailers
While much could be debated about these lists, it is noteworthy that many of the jobs are neither white collar occupations nor ones that require a four-year degree.
Yet, there are also indications in labor data that recent college grads are facing a different job market than the past and ought to take note. A new report released by economists associated with the U.S. Census Bureau reveals some eye-opening things in the new AI era: College grads in certain fields that are highly exposed to AI influence, such as engineering, accounting, journalism, and computer science are experiencing decreases in initial, at least, employment and earnings. The authors state, “We find negative effects following the introduction of ChatGPT are concentrated among graduates from the most AI-exposed majors. These graduates are less likely to find employment immediately after graduation and experience substantial declines in earnings when employed.” Even so, the researchers note, “The effects we estimate generally attenuate as workers move further from graduation.”
There are many questions about this data. Is this reflective of reduced demand for entry level jobs? Have resources simply been targeted elsewhere in this time of vast AI growth? Is this a knee-jerk reaction or will it continue?
What I want students and their families to know is that earning a postsecondary degree or certificate from a trade school, two and four-year college, military and other apprenticeship remains a fantastic investment. Our work at the College Readiness Consortium has identified three main areas of benefits for college grads: financial, health, and societal. At least for now, those who have earned degrees and certificates tend to come out far ahead.
The greatest caution I have, though, is to not simply treat a degree or certificate as a means to an end, with that end being one job. While it is wise to build toward a career, it is even wiser to view college as a time to learn how to be an excellent, adaptive learner and to strengthen critical skills employers will want. Higher education journalist Jeff Selingo feels those key skills that matter most right now are:
- Discernment
- Getting things done
- Problem-solving
- Negotiation
- Networking
Meanwhile, The World Economic Forum has identified its own top work skills, including:
- Analytical thinking
- Resilience, flexibility and agility
- Leadership and social influence
- Creative thinking
- Motivation and self-awareness
- Technological literacy
- Empathy and active listening
- Curiosity and lifelong learning
- Talent management
- Service orientation and customer service
So, all things considered, the bottom line for college is still a resounding YES:
YES: College is expensive.
YES: There are ways to lower college costs.
YES: AI is disrupting work.
YES: In the infancy of AI, some careers are more exposed than others.
YES: College is a time to redouble efforts at learning how to be an exceptional, agile thinker and learner.
YES: College is also a time to strengthen work skills that will last a lifetime and throughout workforce shifts and careers.
YES: College is still very much worth it.
About the Author: Jennifer Kunze, Ph.D., is the Executive Director of the College Readiness Consortium and the Director of Ramp-Up to Readiness™ at the University of Minnesota—Twin Cities. Ramp-Up is a college and career ready curriculum for grades 6 - 12 that strives to make sure all students have an equitable opportunity to achieve social and economic mobility through higher education—whether it be at a two or four-year college, a trade school, or an apprenticeship.